Why world events keep pushing up electricity prices


There is a bit of good news coming in April. From 1 April 2026 the energy price cap drops to 1,641 pounds a year for a typical household. That is about 117 pounds less than you are paying now. Sounds good, right?

Here is the catch. Most of that drop is not because energy has got cheaper. It is because the government has taken some environmental levies off your bill. The wholesale cost of energy has not really moved.

And it gets worse. Forecasts already suggest that by July bills could jump back up to somewhere between 1,900 and nearly 2,000 pounds a year. So the relief you are about to get is probably short lived.

This keeps happening. If you are wondering why, it helps to understand how UK electricity is actually priced and what is going on in the world. In this post I will walk you through it, then show you five practical ways solar protects you from it.

We import most of our gas

The UK imports about 70 percent of its gas. That single fact explains a lot. It means anything that disrupts the global supply of oil and gas hits us hard, because we cannot simply lean on our own supply instead.

When the Russia Ukraine conflict began in 2022, wholesale gas prices shot up to nearly six times their normal level. Bills went through the roof. Even now, in 2026, we are still paying around 35 percent more than we did before that started.

The latest issue is the conflict in the Middle East. After US and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February 2026, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. That is a narrow shipping channel through which roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil passes. Oil prices jumped from around 70 dollars a barrel to over 100. Gas prices reacted almost straight away, and that feeds directly into what you and I pay at home.

So your electricity bill is tied to events thousands of miles away, decided by people you will never meet. That is the part that feels so unfair, and it is.

Why renewables have not made electricity cheap

Here is the bit that really frustrates people, and rightly so. Renewables like wind and solar are now the biggest contributors to our electricity mix. You would think that would mean cheaper electricity. It does not. Here is why.

The grid still needs gas power stations to fill the gaps when demand is higher than what renewables can provide. Under the current pricing system, it is the cost of that last, most expensive source, which is gas, that sets the price for all electricity. All of it.

That is called marginal pricing. The most expensive unit needed in any given moment sets the price for every unit. So even when the wind is blowing and the sun is shining, the moment a gas station is needed to top up supply, gas sets the price across the board.

The gap this creates is enormous. Electricity costs around 27.7 pence per kilowatt hour right now, compared to just 5.9 pence for gas. Same fuel underneath, wildly different price, and no one seems to be fixing it quickly.

The long term answer, and where solar fits

Energy bodies keep saying the same thing. We need to reduce our dependence on imported gas. For a country, that is a slow, political job. For you, as a homeowner, there is something you can actually do about it now. That is exactly where solar comes in.

Let me explain how solar panels help in practical terms. There are five clear ways.

1. You generate your own electricity at zero fuel cost

Once the system is on your roof, the electricity it produces costs you nothing to generate. The sun does not have a wholesale price. So when the price cap goes up in July, the units you are generating yourself are completely unaffected. World events cannot raise the price of your own sunshine.

2. You buy fewer units from the grid

A typical solar system in Cambridgeshire generates between 3,000 and 4,500 kilowatt hours a year, depending on the size and which way your roof faces. At current prices, that is between 830 pounds and 1,250 pounds worth of electricity you are not buying from your supplier. As prices go up, that saving goes up with it.

3. Battery storage makes it even better

The challenge with solar is timing. It generates during the day, but most of us use the most electricity in the morning and the evening. A battery system captures the surplus your panels made during the day and stores it for when you actually need it. So you use much more of your own electricity instead of exporting it. Batteries are modular, so you can size one to suit your home and add to it later.

4. The Smart Export Guarantee pays you for surplus

Whatever your panels generate that you do not use yourself gets exported to the grid. Under the Smart Export Guarantee, known as SEG, your supplier pays you for it. Rates vary, but it means your panels are earning even when you are not home.

5. The payback period keeps getting shorter

When we first started fitting solar, electricity was a lot cheaper. A system that might have taken 10 to 12 years to pay for itself a few years ago could now do it in seven to nine years. That is purely because the electricity you are avoiding buying costs more now. Rising prices are painful, but they do shorten the time it takes solar to pay you back.

I want to be straight with you

Solar will not eliminate your electricity bill entirely. You will still draw from the grid at night, in winter, and on overcast days. How much you can offset depends on your roof, your usage patterns, and whether you add battery storage.

But what a well designed system does is significantly reduce how many units you buy at whatever the going rate happens to be. In a world where that rate keeps getting pushed up by things completely outside your control, a war in Ukraine, a conflict in the Middle East, a cold snap driving up gas demand, that really matters.

The bottom line

Your electricity bill is set by global events and an odd pricing system that lets gas dictate the price of everything. You cannot change either of those. What you can change is how much of that expensive grid power you need to buy in the first place.

We design and install MCS certified solar and battery systems across Cambridgeshire, Bedfordshire and Northamptonshire, around Huntingdon, St Ives, St Neots, Buckden and the surrounding villages. Every quote is bespoke to your home and your usage. If you would like to understand what a system could do for your property specifically, give us a call on 01480 400607 or use the booking link on our website to request a survey.

Jason Pope

Owner, Selec Group

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